Economists fear worst for superstorm Sandy's damage to fragile US recovery

could take months before the total cost of the disaster off the city of New York and the northeast days

As flood waters affected States and Sandy begin the grim task of stripping, many questions remain, including: how big is the impact of the storm and its impact on the U.S. economy

The short answer is: tens of billions of dollars in damage, production losses and disruption of entire industries. And despite some optimistic forecasts made in the aftermath of sand moved inland, there are good reasons to believe that the final bill could be worse than expected.

The devastation caused by the sand comes at a critical moment for the U.S. economy as a whole, which seems to be a slow reflux, even if the pace is too slow for the millions of people at work, and the political fortunes of Barack Obama.

Fortunately, in the sense that landfall sand came too late for the anger felt in the economic data released the presidential election, despite the delays and confusion can still make the statistical office of the work to delay the publication of its report on October employment reviews, scheduled for Friday. Even if the BLS number shredders can complete their work on time, the jurisdiction of two days on the East Coast will an asterisk in the employment figures.

The real impact will not be felt for several weeks, and may take months, even years, before the end of the arena cost is calculated.

initial estimates

the usual response to a natural disaster of great magnitude: yes, there will be loss of damage, but they are outweighed by the dynamism of the reconstruction. Production lost much take place in the coming weeks, businesses and workers to make up a portfolio, while consumer spending collected for several days lost due to storms moves just at later dates or other means. Some sectors, such as tourism and transportation, there are permanent losses - empty rooms of hotels and tickets due to canceled reservations can not be resold later - but this will be brief and limited to the part top of the storm

• This was the case with Hurricane Irene, which hit the region a year ago and caused insured losses of 4.3 billion dollars worth of goods, according to the Insurance Information Institute . But Sandy had a much greater impact in the region, and hit a wider area. It may be that the final bill is well above the figures speak first Tuesday.
• A first estimate was Gregory Daco and Nigel Gault of IHS Global Insight, said said initial estimate of the damage to infrastructure was a loss of $ 20 billion. Lost economic activity could increase the total to $ 30 billion, $ 50 billion.

However, the end result could be much higher for several reasons. The first is that much of the East Coast - densely populated and contains some of the richest regions of America - was deadlocked for two days and closed the federal government and the oil production along the coast interrupted. These things will help you remove a plate of GDP for the fourth quarter, 0.5 percentage point, perhaps at a time when economic growth is already slow.

Then there is the part of the rebuild operation. The extent of damage can be much more than the initial estimates expected, due to the destruction of New Jersey is coming to light. This includes both private property and federal and state infrastructure.

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