วันเสาร์ที่ 14 กรกฎาคม พ.ศ. 2555

Eurozone crisis live: German borrowing costs hit record low after Portugal admits it may need more help

. Germany sells debt with a yield of only 0.14%

PM: Portugal "there is no assurance that the financial markets back in 2013

. Passos Coelho also vows to prove doubters wrong

trading on European markets mixed

. Who should replace Sir Mervyn King

Unemployment in the UK fell by 8.3% .

. Today, the agenda

1:03 p.m.:

This warning
head Bundesbank, Jens Weidmann as solving problems of Spain is not the work of Central Bank of Europe (see 10:41) has caused some concern in financial markets.

With the Spanish stock market even more important for more than 3.1%, the euro also fell (about $ 1.308 against the dollar, half a cent from the previous maximum. )

Hans Redeker,

head of FX strategy at Morgan Stanley, said the comments were Weidmann weigh on markets:

The Spanish stock market was severely affected today, there were also comments made by Mr. Weidmann is to come. This negative impact on capital markets in Europe is the engine of euro weakness.

more reassuring, Spanish 10-year bonds still below the 6% mark, which gets some of us happy. This is despite Weidmann said that high yields are not sufficient to justify the intervention of the European Central Bank. As he told Reuters:

do not think you will find a colleague (in the Council of the ECB), who believes that the Eurosystem (the Euro zone central banks) is there to ensure a level of rates particular interest for a given country.

Now you can watch the complete interview online here -. It deserves to be read


Current data show that the construction of the European construction industry is always in the wrong direction. Activity fell 3.7% in the EU in February, and a jump of 7.1% in the euro area.

Economy corresponding

Phillip Inman


The UK and Germany can be seen as a tale of two winters. The increase in the UK may be interpreted as a rebound from a bad winter profoundly from 2010. Germany, but he had the most snow and ice in recent months. But this description is too simplistic, especially in the case of Germany, where the fall is all year.

Since construction in February 2011 decreased by 21.4%. Economists blamed the spending freeze on government agencies for much of the fall in construction. Only Slovenia and Italy were worse with falls of 27.5% and 23% respectively.

German companies are more optimistic about the construction of the rest of this year, according to surveys of sentiment, even if it is clawing its way back from a weak base.


Interesting research UBS said today that Ireland should be given a lot of slack by the troika, if it lacks targets in their rescue. FT Alphaville has the full story (go to the market excellent live session 11:28 pm). Here's a taste:

The most important factor is that Europe needs Ireland to succeed as much as Ireland needs Europe. Why? Just because it is a country that has blocked diligently to fiscal targets and also adopted a reform program of textbooks: if not, you run the risk that other vulnerable economies such as Portugal, Spain and the Italy have failed too many In other words, provided Ireland makes a serious effort, this symbiotic relationship that should serve well.


eurozone The crisis has received a mention in the Prime Minister's Questions in the House of Commons

Asked about the decision by Standard & Poor's on Friday reaffirmed the AAA rating of Great Britain and stable outlook, said David Cameron

We received more messages from other European countries this week about the importance of the upper part of the deficit over your debts, and have a good plan.

and Fraser Nelson, editor of the Spectator, quickly tweet a photo that shows how the predictions for the timing of deficit reduction Britain have been worse since Cameron took over ...

In LF, Cameron talks about "the importance of getting over the deficit." Here his progress over two years. twitpic.com/9b7kqh

- Fraser Nelson (@ frasernelson) April 18, 2012


The Spanish stock market fell today, dropping to a successful three-year low earlier this week


is the featured artist of the poor in Europe today, up 3% in 7149, led by the fall shares of the bank.

Paul Reilly

money made clear yesterday forecast the International Monetary Fund have fueled concern that Spain will not achieve its objectives deficit reduction:

The IMF forecasts a deficit of 6% deficit in 2012, followed by 5.7% in 2013 against the Spanish government's commitment to achieve a budget deficit of 3% for 2013.


update:. City analysts and traders also citing Jens Weidmann warning that Spain should not expect too much help from the European Central Bank, and the default logging data reported this morning (see 10:41)


Germany sold ? 4.21bn debt

a record

this morning, as investors continued to vote for their obligations as a peaceful and ultra.

With only 0.14%, the yield (in fact, the interest rate) on the two-year bond is the lowest recorded. Last month, the debt with the same maturity was sold at a yield of 0.31%.

Despite a low return rate, the auction is still very popular among investors. The German authorities informed of a report for submission to the coverage of 1.8%, while another ? 800 bonds were retained for subsequent sale on the secondary bond market.

analysts consider the auction as a success for Germany, at a time when fears of a deepening crisis in the euro area remain high.

Michael Leister

DZ Bank


Again, the story that the demand for security remains in place.


Richard McGuire



Aa investor demand for the role of
remains strong, with the threat against which the crisis tensions ratchet even higher that supports the primary desire for capital preservation.

Back to the crisis in the euro area, and the head of the Bundesbank gave Spain a stern warning not to to trust the European Central Bank out of the impasse.

Jens Weidmann

fully justified its reputation as the cold hard cash, told Reuters that there is no reason to panic because bond yields between countries on a peak temporary. He also slapped Nicolas Sarkozy's suggestion that the European Central Bank should pay more attention to economic growth.

Here are some key quotes Weidmann borrowing costs rose:

There must always proclaim the end of the world if the interest rate of a country's long-term temporarily exceed 6% .... It is also a spur to the authorities of the countries concerned to do their homework and find (market) confidence through the search path of reform.

And Sarkozy:

me great concern that a softening of the mandate is being discussed ... A fundamental debate on the amendment of the mandate can certainly have an effect on inflation expectations.

Weidmann comments hit the son together with new data from the Bank of Spain, which showed that the amount of bad debts on the books of Spanish banks has come to a maximum of 18 years, property as assets turn sour. He is currently ? 143.8bn of non-performing loans of lurking in the Spanish banking sector.


My colleague Heather Stewart , editor of the Observer economy , has crunched data on unemployment in the UK, and recognizes that this morning, unexpected drop in unemployment could signal an economic rebound this spring essential.

She writes:

Youth unemployment

, who was a political standpoint, also declined slightly in 9000 within three months to February (the most advanced to date figures from the ONS provided), leaving a total of 1,030,000 16 to 24 years in search of work. The unemployment rate for this age group was 22.2% compared to 22.3% three months earlier.

However, there was a further increase from 18 to 24 who have been unemployed for a long period of time.

and economics correspondent

Phillip Inman

cites other warning
reasons - almost all positive news in the workplace on time part:

full-time jobs remain retired. There is also the crucial question of compensation. The average wage in the economy increased by only 1.1% last year, while inflation continues to average 3.5%.


totaljobs.com firm is also impressed:

While on the surface are more optimistic than recent months, they hide a number of concerns - at least not surprisingly high levels of underemployment - they do not take account of new last two months. We have seen that the retail sector taking other mistreatment, with more closures announced, and concern for the euro area resurfaced.

Although the current figures, it is expected that unemployment will continue rising until 2012, although more slowly than before.

Labour Minister Chris Grayling welcomed today's unexpected drop in the unemployment rate to 8.3%
Grayling said the government's campaign to rebalance the UK economy is paying, with 35,000 fewer unemployed in the three months to February.

Labour, however, is not impressed that 2.63 million people are without work, noting the increase in the income of the applicant (1.613 million). Work and Pensions of the shadow, Liam Byrne said:

We had two years of excuses and we now have proof - that this government has totally failed to address emergency work in Britain, and we limped into crisis.

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