วันจันทร์ที่ 15 กรกฎาคม พ.ศ. 2556

Will the Republican party get another George W Bush? | Harry J Enten

The Republican Party is not necessarily intended to amortization. Is likely to choose a candidate who appeals to the populist Midwest

is the destination to the Republican Party? Some have argued, for example, that the unconditional conservatism House GOP wants to hurt them with moderates. Others believe that the lack of movement on immigration GOP House will seriously damage between the Latino voting bloc growth. I said wide reasons that Republicans be much, although some Republican politicians are out of the ordinary in some subjects. But if I'm wrong?

conjecture

Republican primary voters with a large participation of party members will solve the problem. There is a tendency among many to think that the Republican primary voters are the driving force behind the initiative of the Republican Party to the right. The academic literature tends to reject this view. In addition, there is a good amount of evidence suggesting that the Republican presidential primary voters took the lead almost everyone: win.

During the 2012 election, Republican primary voters were greeted with many options. Most people agree that Mitt Romney was one of the most moderate of these options outside of Jon Huntsman, who was more liberal than even moderate Jerry Ford. Romney had developed a health plan during his time as governor of Massachusetts, which was very similar to Obamacare. Obamacare, of course, is something that is the most despised in the Republican ranks as a "war on Christmas".

But Romney won the nomination. He did it because he was considered the most electable in the primary after primary. Think of the primary key of Michigan, where Santorum win could be devastating for Romney hopes. A plurality of 32% said that defeating President Obama was the most important issue. Among voters Romney won 61% of the vote - far higher than the 41% of all voters. The same thing happened the following week in the key state of Ohio. Then, 42% said they win in November was more important and Romney took 52% of voters against 38% who had overall.

How

Republican primary voters got the message? As demonstrated in the party decides (read the book), the presidential appointments are decided by party members. If you like insiders as a candidate, you will receive great support. This took place in almost all of the modern primary nomination.

I expect the same trend that emerged in 2016. Republican insiders want the center of his party to win. The gain factor is especially true where a party has been out of power for some time as evidenced by the fact that most of it is in the power of the increased possibility of a more moderate candidate is chosen. That is why we have all this discussion about whether, and if so, how the Republican Party needs to change to make in a year when the economic conditions are not conducive to their overwhelming majority.


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