devastating downturn in European countries has shown that the "decoupling" - the idea that developing countries continue to grow despite the difficulties of the West - is a myth
Sitting in an office filled with a variety of Hindu deities, Anurag Gupta tea exporter does not look like a man worried about the rupee nosediving. On Friday, the Indian currency fell to a record low against the dollar, prompting worries about a slowdown in the economy is dynamic. But tea Gupta sells luxury for countries like the United States and the United Kingdom, and for now is reaping the benefits of a cheaper currency.
"At the beginning of the week, there were 55 rupees to the dollar, but today, 57 years ago," he said smiling. A box containing 10 sticks of its Sunshine Tea (patented twist on a traditional tea bag) wholesale $ 2.50, if the dollar in rupees, the higher profit margins.
But Gupta expects tough times. "The recession has not yet happened, but it is around the corner," says orange bindi on her forehead while frowning. "We see the crisis in Greece and the crisis in Europe and the need to prepare that affect us," he said, adding that he plans to reduce its prices as a precaution.
Currently, Gupta sells 100,000 cases per month, almost all abroad. It is expected that the high-end market that objectives will be to the recession. All Americans who can afford to pay $ 8 for 10 teabags are not, in his opinion, the population most affected by the global financial crisis
After the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008, the demand for their tea clubs degenerated recognizes, but it recovered. And anyway, is not too concerned about the foreign market when there is so much potential in the country.
There was a demonstration earlier this month, when the latest data showed that the Indian economy grew by just 5.3% in the three months to March, the pace slower for nine years - but Gupta insists that it is still a country upwards.
"Just a few years ago, can not imagine India will happen 50 or 60 rupees in a cup of tea or coffee," he said. "But with Costa Coffee and other channels that open, Indians are willing to spend that and more. " Currently, less than 5% of sales are domestic tea Sun, concentrated in the Indian luxury hotels and shops.
Plunging demand markets in Europe, many of which remain in a deep recession, and the collapse of global confidence in the ability of politicians to stop the rot, brutally highlighted weaknesses the emerging markets - including Brazil BRIC, Russia, India and China.Rakesh Shah
, co-chair of the Foreign Trade of the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry, said exporters whose customers are mainly in the euro area have already been obtained. "I know that many small textile exporters who sell in Europe, which were closed as a result of" direct reports. He said that the figures show that exports from India declined by 3% between May 2011 and May 2012 -. "It is particularly troubling given that the target was an increase of 15% to 20%"
But businesses that rely on imports are those, no doubt, are the most affected, he added, citing the Indian gem and jewelery, which is based on the import of gold and stones precious abroad. "These raw materials costs 20% more than a year ago now."
With the economic downturn strongly, and the rupee plunging as investors take flight and head of security of the U.S. dollar, the Indian authorities are faced with a dilemma: should reduce interest costs to boost growth in the context of the crisis in the euro area, they may trigger inflation, which is already running at 10%, which makes life difficult for ordinary families struggling to pay essential. "In a country of 1.2 million people, a government may fall in inflation," said Shah.
India has its own internal problems -. Much of its public infrastructure remains in disrepair, and businesses complain of being paralyzed by corruption and bureaucracyadds that each of the major emerging economies have their own problems to deal with. China's growth was heavily dependent on investment in recent years, and became even more so after Beijing sparked a spending spree in 2008-09 to offset the slowdown in the world. total investment was 49% of Chinese GDP in 2010-11 extraordinary. High levels of investment are not uncommon in rapidly developing economies, but few analysts believe China can maintain roads, airports and residential towers at an impressive pace. Many fear that the building was an unsustainable bubble is about to burst.
"The big problem is that his recovery program focused on the wave huge investment," says Charles Dumas of Lombard Street Research Council. Growth this year should be closer to 8 % to 10% which was the norm in the past 10 years.
There is a deliberate effort by Chinese authorities to tip the balance in favor of domestic consumption over exports. "This is not just growth, but the growth of structure," said Shear.
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