วันอังคารที่ 14 สิงหาคม พ.ศ. 2555

Eurozone crisis live: Ireland votes on EU fiscal treaty

. The low voter turnout at the beginning

. Yes and No campaigns to present its case

. Mario Draghi supports banking syndicate, the explosions of the leaders . Greek

fall in retail sales drop 16.2%

. Today, the agenda


You may remember the row that erupted after Christine Lagarde, the IMF, told the Guardian that the Greek people stop to escape paying taxes.

Well, Nick Malkoutzis, deputy director of the English-language daily newspaper Kathimerini Greece, wrote this article on the subject, in part, based on the opinions of its readers.

Malkoutzis highlighted several important points, including:

. Yes, Greece has a large shadow economy, but do many other countries in Europe and the developing world. The country is not the only sinner.

. The Greeks may be based on the ineptitude of government bureaucracy just to avoid taxes, but in other countries, large corporations and wealthy individuals simply use the tax loopholes for avoid paying taxes in income.

Malkoutzis also suggests that officials and critics may want to deal with the scale of the suffering of the population in Greece (at this point, Ms. Lagarde said she had more sympathy for children in Africa than in Athens). He concludes:

But again, the stories of workers losing their jobs every day, thousands who have no health benefits or sick people not to buy their drugs and others who are pushed so far that life is not what you want to listen to before bed. These are the kinds of stories that might keep you awake all night.

The entire work is here.

2:24 p.m.:. The number of U.S. workers filing for unemployment benefits rose last week, a sign that the recovery in the labor market continues to decline. Initial claims of unemployment increased from 10,000 to 383,000 seasonally adjusted in the week ending May 26, the Labor Department said Thursday.

But stock markets of the United States to date seem to take the news calmly. The Dow Futures - an indication of the direction of the markets are likely to take - is to just before the market opens

2:06 p.m.:

Here our correspondent on Wall Street, Dominic Rushe in the past, U.S. GDP data (see 13:41)

With all the talk of austerity spending U.S. v Europe is interesting to see what the impact of the short United States is having an impact on GDP.

The Commerce Department said that government spending has contributed to slower economic growth. Federal government spending decreased 5.9% in the first quarter after falling 6.9% in the fourth quarter. State and local expenditures were also reduced, down 2.5%.


writing a complete story on the news that U.S. GDP grew by 1.9% (annualized) in the first quarter of 2012 did, 2.2% felt that the first, here.

1:41 p.m.:

U.S. economic growth during the first three months of 2012 was revised downward. United States increased by now

1.9% during the quarter on an annualized basis (approximately 0.475% based on quarterly basis is used Europe).



was expected by economists, and is another indication that the global economy does not have a good start to 2012 (the euro area has stagnated, while the UK contracted 0, 3%).


The data also showed an unexpected drop in U.S. corporate earnings, which fell 4.1% during the quarter. This is the biggest drop since the last three months of 2008, when the panic following the collapse of Lehman Brothers has sent corporate profits under more than one quarter.

economics professor Nouriel Roubini fears that this is the beginning of a trend, as economic problems feed on the bottom line of businesses:

beginning of the reduction in profits? @ MarkitEconomics: U.S. Q1 drop of the largest corporate profit since Q4 2008 (-26.5 PCT) Reuters U.S. @ #

- Nouriel Roubini (Nouriel @) May 31, 2012

1:01 p.m.:
Spain is to have a day of relative calm, with bond yields falling to danger levels. The yield on Spanish 10-year fell to 6.47%, reversing the alarming rise yesterday concern reinforced by their banks.

good. But there are disturbing reports of the Bank of Spain on the amount of capital leaving the country.

> Giles Tremlett

reports from Madrid:

people and companies have been pulling their money out of Spain at an unprecedented rate. Some have left the country ? 66.2bn in March, according to figures released today by the Bank of Spain. This is the largest monthly amount since the statistical series began in 1990, according to El Pais, and raised the possibility of capital flight as people worry about the country to stay with the euro .

was more than double the previous month and the media have left Spain 193bn euros over the last nine months.

Spanish banks have lost two percent of their deposits in the same month. It's not a race, but also one of the greatest figures of the past 15 years.

Country has a graph showing the monthly levels of capital by a large (I took a small square Screengrab as a teaser).


Although the main referendum takes place in Ireland today, voting has already taken place in some islands off the coast of Ireland

voters in five islands in the region of Donegal voted Monday. Arranmore, only 43 voters in an electorate of 173 voted.

A record turnout, according to Nora Gallagher President, who told reporters:

is the lowest share ever.

On another island, Inishfree, the only man to live in reality do not vote. Although Barry Edgar Pilcher was able to exercise their democratic right (the urn was placed in his living room table), a German named Hans Schleweck 63 years living on the continent was disappointed to discover that he could not participate the referendum.

According to The Irish Times

, Mr. Pilcher, then it is the returning officer, a Guard officer, and man Schleweck disappointment with an air or two on his saxophone.


participation may have been low in Ireland in the early hours of the referendum (see 11:38), but the leaders of the major parties voted early.

Prime Minister Enda Kenny, his vote at the National School of St. Patrick in Westport, while Deputy Prime Minister Eamon Gilmore voted in Shankill, south Dublin this morning.

On the side of it, Sinn Fein, Gerry Adams, president cast his vote in the constituency of Louth.

And here is a picture of a Catholic nun voted in the Electoral College Drumcondra Dublin.


Army officers in the bomb

Irish have a strong suspicious object outside the elections office in Dublin Sinn Féin TD Mary Lou McDonald

The suspicious object was found in his office in the North Strand Dublin this morning. Technical military officers have been removed to determine whether an explosive device was viable.

UPDATE 14:00:.

Sinn Fein later said that the suspicious package left at the office of Ms. McDonald was a joke bomb


Fitch warns that "the risk of the Greek [the euro] is large and growing".

not expect the euro to break completely, however.

The warning comes in a new report, Fitch discusses how he would react to a hypothetical output of the euro area. He explained that ruled the country had failed to pay the exit, and also reduce the ratings of companies based in the country to the status of trash or worse ....

Fitch said:

scores for countries emerging entities reflect the serious side effects of the recession, inflation, lack of credit crunch, bank deposits and capital controls, and the social and political instability potential. Combined with the application of classification criteria for conversion of debt into difficulty (DDE) for the conversion step, the ratings are likely to get many speculative or default.


Here's some more information on participation in the Irish referendum (see also 11:17). TEN indicates that participation by 10am to polling stations in Dublin was only 4.6% of the electorate.

The camp is expected to increase the time lunch and afternoon tea,

Henry McDonald


opposition party in this topic ...
Fianna Fail

issued a statement in the final minutes urging people to exercise their democratic right.

Fianna Fail

is alone in the opposition benches in the Irish parliament that the caller a Yes vote with the judgment.



Irish public television RTE


was not only for 9.30

3.8% result of voters in Dublin, while the South are in neighboring Dun Laoghaire was a simple

Henry McDonald


first day of classes, but not worth anything these two groups south of the River Liffey have produced some of Europe's largest favorable vote in all referendums on the EU today it above.

Polls open at 7 am, allowing people to vote before work. It will also be open until 10:00 p.m. tonight.


An update of Brussels - Mario Monti, is telling the Germans that they should think again about the euro

aa Ian Traynor


also addressed an audience in Brussels this morning, the Italian prime minister was placed midway between Chancellor Angela Merkel (Frau austerity) and President Francois Hollande (Lord of the growth).

supported the Germans in the French resistance to calls by the European Central Bank to extend its mandate to promote growth in the euro area, but supported the campaign of France in Berlin pushing for more growth-oriented flexibility. The public reaction in Greece and other countries against austerity has prompted the German government had to "think fastly" on how to respond.

The comments come after another Sig Mario Draghi, has added its weight to calls from the union of the nearest bank in Europe.


As noted earlier (see 8:57), public outrage on Irish debt, banks generally hated and tormented factor in the referendum today.

New in the last 24 hours that the Irish banking sector need another cash injection of ? 4 billion could influence voters one way or another . (details here)

In Dublin

Henry McDonald


where the money will come nobody knows. Some suspect that billions would come from the second international rescue operation, others fear that the State may have to raise the money elsewhere to maintain the operation of the Irish banking system.

In any case the possibility of Irish high street banks increased the generosity of the taxpayers, whether Irish, German or otherwise, will be furious most people in the state. The question is: willl this orientation in mind the need to stay in the euro area due to the need of a loan of a second potential of the EU in Ireland, partners and thus stimulate or field Yes will only exacerbate the growing resentment against the entire financial system and provide more ammunition for the next afternoon, right?

A new opinion poll published in today's Greece, ahead of Syriza New Democracy in the period before the parliamentary committee on June 17 choices.
Led by RC data between 28 and 30 May, showed that 24.5% of the population would vote for New Democracy, compared to 22.1% of Syriza. The percentages increased to 28.4% and 25.6% when "not know" and those who refuse to vote are excluded.

Syriza previous surveys (which has pledged to renegotiate the austerity program of Greece) to the head or neck and neck with the new democracy.


Mario Draghi made an important intervention in the Eurozone crisis, this morning, saying that the European Parliament and national governments must take the initiative now to stop the crisis. The head of the European Central Bank, said issues of the Economic Committee of Parliament lost no time in setting Spain and the radical movement towards a union of the euro area adequate exercise.

Draghi said their views of the growing clamor for the euro area banking syndicate, with guarantees for depositors Commons.
Political leaders

Europe must show "vision" he says, and you can not expect the ECB to act as a government of the euro area for rent. A syndicate of banks in the euro area should be monitored centrally, the euro area include guarantees for depositors and a resolution fund, he said.
The requirement was "greater centralization of banking supervision." Draghi rain downright contempt for the "worst" possible attempts of authorities to deal with banks implode, especially Spain and Belgium.

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