วันอาทิตย์ที่ 12 สิงหาคม พ.ศ. 2555

Eurozone crisis live: Markets slide as Greek euro exit looms

likely to leave Greece in the euro area are increasingly, that political leaders prepare for coalition talks in Athens last minute . FTSE 100 falls

more than 100 points in a time aa . Spanish and Italian bond yields up

. Today, the agenda

1:29 p.m.:

Fears of an imminent release of the euro is causing growing consternation in Athens a government minister to speak publicly about the risk of armed groups out Kalashnikovs.

Our own

Helen Smith

during the day politicians have spoken of the terrible effects of leaving the euro would have on the economy with a former senior official in the outgoing government speaks of "massive food shortages, rations and fuel run on Greek banks. "

" If there was a failure because he refused to engage in the program [of the EU and IMF] and cut us loose in Europe we would see a drastic decrease in the circulation of money too, "said the official, who requested anonymity because the government is more efficient in power." should freeze deposits. We would not have enough capital to pay for imports, rationing would be introduced, there would be no shortage of medicines and other products. They [the EU] not having to force us to leave. Would be so difficult to leave, "he said.

In the last hour

fears have been expressed also by the effect of leaving the euro would have on the social order .

Speaking on local radio today, Michalis Chrysohoidis, the minister of protecting citizens in the outgoing government, chose to be more explicit. It predicted that Greece would fall into the "civil war" if you leave the euro area and returned to the drachma.
"If Greece can not meet its obligations and service its debt will be great pain, "Chrysohoidis, a senior member of the Socialist PASOK party, told Radio Flash. "What we have more to lose than we've already lost? Our freedom," he said. "What prevails are gangs armed with Kalashnikov assault rifles and one has the highest number of Kalashnikovs are counted ... we will end the civil war."


The weak euro has just reached a new three and a half year low against sterling

A pound is now worth ? 1.2501, so that one euro worth 79.92p.

The euro remained surprisingly strong during most of 2012 before the depreciation of the Greek crisis intensified. Jane Foley, currency expert Rabobank, said it could also strengthen later this year:

not expect the euro to remain in a permanent downward track. If Greece decides to adhere to the terms of their rescue, the euro is likely to regain some ground. If politicians fail to meet euro through an exit Greek, the euro also recovered in time.

Even in the unlikely event that politicians can not avoid a collapse of the European Monetary Union and the euro becomes the currency of Germany and the nucleus, the euro has also pushed sharply higher.


global financial markets have reached new lows in the trading day was maintained. The following summarizes the results:

FTSE 100
up 116 points, or 2.1% in 5458

Germany's DAX

up 136 points, from 2.08% in 6443

French CAC

down 70 points, or 2.25% in 3059

Spanish IBEX:

down 175 points, or 2.5% in 6818

Italian FTSE MIB.

up 430 points, or 3%, to 13.616

to date. aa

Throughout Europe, financial stocks are the largest declines. The miners also suffered great losses, reflecting fears that the eurozone crisis could derail the global economy.


Update on Athens correspondent Helena Smith in our

Greek media reported that politicians in PASOK, New Democracy and the Democratic Left - smallest of the three parties agreed on the need to form a government order to keep Greece in the area Euro considering the possibility of a short-lived coalition to lead the country in the coming months.

Helena follows:

Under the latter scenario, a government that was formed for the purpose of operational issues for the next two or three months. At that time, to address the "urgent business" to ensure that Greece has continued to receive rescue loans from creditors. As noted earlier, Athens is due to receive a cap of ? 30000000000 liquidity in June However, the quid pro status is that a debtor country is also announcing ? 11.5 billion of additional cuts to reign in public finances.

should be remembered that the Democratic Left has increasingly demanded that Greece "decouple" itself controversial circumstances he signed his last agreement loan with ? 130 000 000 000 international creditors. How that happens remains to be seen.

Helen added that the comments of Wolfgang Schäuble, this morning (see 11:03) that Greece needs help "to his feet again raised hopes of a change in attitude from Berlin.

governmentt As a coalition, there were similar rumors Thursday night, when the leader of PASOK, Evangelos Venizelos called for a unity government. Then there was some support from the Democratic Left, but hopes of an agreement has not yet.

PASOK, New Democracy and the Democratic Left have enough seats for a slim majority in parliament in Athens. But, like many people voted for parties that reject the terms of the financing package of Greece, for example, a coalition could be very unpopular.


Helene Smith took over the statement this morning, Syriza, in which Chief Alexis Tsipras said he would be willing to participate in further discussions between the parties, provided that the Golden Dawn were excluded (as mentioned in 10:22). Tsipras also attacked the "debates" that selective he said took place in Athens these days.

Elena wrote:


Syriza, speaking of Tsipras "will" to participate in talks in the presence of all party leaders, with the exception of the neo fascist Chrysi Avgi - also demanded that the minutes Sunday meeting between the leaders of major parties in the country and President Papoulias, to be "released immediately to the Greek people can be informed and the media stopped the rumor mill about the positions and intentions of the parties". "The Presidency is clear obligation" to release the minutes, he said.


The European Commission has followed Finland draw a warning shot in Athens today, warning that Greece can not not remain in the euro area, if nt abide by the terms of their agreement to help you.

European Commission spokeswoman Pia Ahrenkilde Hansen, during a press conference today in Brussels that:


We will continue in the euro and the hope that Greece will continue in the euro area ... but it must respect its commitments.

Another sign that European leaders are "inevitable" with Greece, or an attempt to pressure the Greek leaders to repair somehow an agreement?

11:48:. eurozone The crisis led to the escalation of another script in government bonds shelters "

This has resulted in lower yields on sovereign bonds of Sweden, the United Kingdom, Germany, Netherlands, Switzerland, Denmark, Finland, and Luxumberg to record levels.

For Britain, this means that the 10-year gilt is trading at a record yield of only 1.87% (against 6.2% in Spain).


Sky News "tweeted this graph showing how the costs of labor in loans in the UK have fallen over the last 12 months.

interest rate for UK govt now below 1.9% for the first time since the creation of capital markets 300yrs ago (10 years = 1.88%) twitter.com / EdConwaySky / st ...

- Ed Conway (@ EdConwaySky) May 14, 2012

It's amazing what a financial crisis and ? 325bn of quantitative easing by the Bank of England can achieve ....


While tense negotiations to form a government in Greece continue, the outgoing prime minister, Lucas Papademos, weighed with a serious warning , said Hélène Smith.

Papademos has been shown, a former vice president of the European Central Bank has warned the country's president, Karolos Papaoulias if political uncertainty continues much closer to the empty coffers of Greece may dry out completely - and sooner than we thought.

technocrat Prime Minister, whose government has officially no longer exercised out power, made the warning in a letter to the head of state on Sunday.

Described as an SOS by the Greek media, the letter raised the alarm, saying that Athens face the danger of default as soon as the "early June", as it will be unable to meet with its foreign debt.

Papademos, who won a second ? 130 000 000 000 EU and IMF rescue for Greece, after six months of tortuous negotiations, warned that the fund could be depleted faster than expected because that foreign lenders had kept vital ? 1 billion euros in aid of 5.2 billion times that arrived in Athens last week.

The political impasse in recent weeks had, he said, greatly reduces the ability of prosecutors to Greece to collect the mechanisms to work effectively with the result that journals of State had also fallen. Revenues decreased from an average of ? 40 million per day to less than ? 25 million.

Before the political upheaval, Greece had been waiting for delivery "cap" cash of ? 30 billion, which had planned to recapitalize the banks (to the tune of ? 25 billion), against to debt payments and to cover the public sector pay and pensions.

The troika of creditors in the EU, the IMF and the ECB, with increasing force, however, clarified that there will be no more help before Athens receives a government who can demonstrate a commitment to austerity and structural reforms considered vital to regain competitiveness in a country whose economy to a fifth consecutive year of recession, is virtually to its knees. Once the government is formed, the troika officials will return to the Greek capital for financial review progress.

Papademos said political uncertainty, was not only impede progress, but to put enormous pressure on the banking system of Greece, and thus the nation funds, the real economy. Six weeks of instability after the elections on June 17 - the most likely date - much worse, macro-economist, wrote in the note.

outgoing Finance Minister Philippos Sachinidis (though invested with real power) should respond to the growing concern about the headless Greece, when he attends the meeting of the Ecofin in Brussels the day today. Unlike Belgium, who managed to survive without a government for a record 541 days, there is little hope that Athens will continue to drift, even for a fraction of that time without the collapse of government dysfunctional first.


new data of opinion polls was published in Athens

was found that 66.1% of people want a coalition government was formed, while 32.4% want new elections.

A slight majority of respondents (53.6%) said they believed that Greece should continue with his current economic plan. And on the question of the future of Greece in the euro area, 81.5% said they want the country remains the single currency.

(which is by Linda Yueh, Bloomberg)


Wolfgang Schäuble , the finance minister of Germany, He finger on one of the causes of the situation in Greece, this morning, telling reporters in Berlin that Greece decided to devalue if it had its own currency.

However, it is clear that Greece can not devalue without leaving the euro - and Schäuble was the claim that, despite the crisis, Greece is better to stay put. He added that includes Greece is one:

desperately difficult.


Schäuble, also told reporters that "We have to Greece back on its feet," perhaps a sign that Germany could give some ground on the pace of tax reform?

Finnish European Affairs Alexander Stubb

, also referred to the Greek crisis, warning that the country can not remain in the euro area If we reject the rescue agreement (as required by some parties that won the elections on May 6). Stubb said:

I think it's an impossible equation, and I think in this sense is a iresponsible statement.


Curiously rules for the stock today is that it is


days after the Greek electorate has a resounding rejection of the terms of bailout of the country. European equities fell Monday (London was closed for a holiday), but was not then a resumption of optimism that a unity government could be dug out of order.

as David Jones, chief market strategist at IG Index, said:

makes little difference this weekend. Two days back and forth negotiations in Athens produced much heat but little light, and the world woke up Monday morning for another day without Greek government. New elections in June now seems a certainty, and the possibility of a Greek of the euro area is openly discussed in the corridors of power.

European markets remain in the red, with the index of Athens, a dip of 22 years under (up 4.15% to 586) this morning.

Italy, Spain, saw its borrowing costs rise due to the sovereign debt auction this morning
the Italian Treasury has agreed to pay a yield of 3.91% in exchange for finding buyers for three-year bonds, which is the highest since January (according to Reuters data). On the positive side, Italy had to sell the maximum of ? 5.25bn was looking for.

Alan McQuaid

aa stockbrokers Bloxham

, Dublin, warned that " the things will get worse instead of better "for Italy in the bond markets, at least in the short term. This would add to pressure on Mario Monti, PM technocratic Italy, at a time when opposition to economic reforms is increasing.

agreed, saying:

These are critical times for Italy. The list of concerns is growing, and includes the ability of the economy to withstand greater austerity, shortages of foreign buyers at the auctions, the political environment increasingly uncertain and, especially, the intensification of the crisis in Greece. Italy remains extremely vulnerable to a sharp deterioration in confidence, particularly because of its substantial financing needs in the second half of this year.

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