วันพฤหัสบดีที่ 15 ธันวาคม พ.ศ. 2554

Eurozone crisis live: IMF's Lagarde warns of return to Great Depression - 15 December 2011

. Christine Lagarde warned that no country is immune from the financial crisis

. Czech Republic and Hungary are opposed to tax harmonization

. France says Britain should lose its AAA rating

. Auction UK Gold sees weak demand

. Euro Zone the point of "mild" recession

manufacturing PMI in China is hiring

blogs . Live now: Graeme Wearden

10:11 p.m.:

time to conclude. Here is an overview of the night.

Christine Lagarde warned that the world could fall into a repeat of the Great Depression.

The IMF has urged world leaders to work together to resolve the crisis, or against protectionism and isolation

top central banker
France said that Britain would lose its AAA rating in the first place.

In an extraordinary statement, Christian Noyer, said the British economy was in worse shape than its Gallic rival. In response, Downing Street said there was a responsible plan to resolve the crisis.

The rescue plan agreed by EU leaders (with the exception of David Cameron) last week seems to be in ruins.

Hungary and the Czech Republic expressed its opposition to any attempt to harmonize the tax systems in the EU.

Fitch lowered eight of the largest banks in the world. warned that Bank of America, Barclays, Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank, BNP Paribas, Credit Suisse, Morgan Stanley and Societe Generale all face difficult times as the worsening financial crisis. Spain held a successful auction of bonds. performance sales of ? 6 billion Spanish debt fell. The UK has also sold some gilts today, but declined the request.

We'll be back tomorrow. Thank you and good night!

9:58 p.m.


, Christine Lagarde, currently dominates the front page of The Guardian tomorrow. Here's an idea:

Global Risks

sinking into a depression style 1930, unless countries resolve their differences and work together to tackle the debt crisis deepening in Europe, the executive director at the International Monetary Fund he warned.

On a day that saw an escalation of the war tit for tat trade between China and the United States and the gap between England and France's diplomatic, Christine Lagarde , has issued its strongest warning yet the health of the global economy and said that if the international community not to cooperate, the risk was of "the recession, rising protectionism, isolation."

He added:

9:22 p.m.:.

eight of the largest banks in the world has just been downgraded by Fitch

Bank of America


Goldman Sachs

Deutsche Bank

BNP Paribas

of Credit Suisse

Morgan Stanley


Société Générale
all seen their values ??sustainability '"(a measure of quality credit) cutting.

The six largest banks have also seen their IDR (another measure of the probability of default) cut.

The eight of world trade and universal banks (GTUBE) are considered "systemically important". In other words -

too big to fail

. Group, UBS said the qualifications.

Fitch said the downgrade "reflects the challenges the industry as a whole, instead of negative events in the idiosyncrasy of the fundamental credit quality."

was noted that all banks are facing difficult economic conditions:

These results challenges both economic developments and a host of regulatory changes.

Fitch incorporates the major advances is the banks have done in the creation of capital and liquidity to withstand the challenges of the market, which has maintained a VR cut or two steps. However, Fitch continues to believe that even well managed, the structural aspects of financing, income and debt, GTUBE predispose to vulnerability to market sentiment and confidence, especially in times of financial stress exogenous.

addition, the complexity of their business models and exposure to big cock is more difficult to assess the extent of the loss to leave quickly to market conditions events.Over unexpected time may down, but Fitch expects market volatility to remain above historical averages and economic growth in developed markets to remain subdued for a prolonged period. It is many lines of business in securities transactions more difficult, due to lower activity and higher financing costs.

8:51 p.m.

We have reported (very) late last night that the IMF had decided to return to Ireland in the next section the bailout, worth ? 3.9 billion. Thus, the IMF has just released all the details.

In a statement David Lipton Director, Director of the IMF First Deputy Managing congratulated Ireland to keep pace with the terms of his rescue:

The Irish authorities have remained strong despite the implementation of the program from the external environment tense.

However ...

growth turned positive in the first half of the year Irish bond spreads have declined significantly since the summer, but Ireland is facing the risk of turbulence in the euro area and weak trading partners' growth prospects.

7:50 p.m.
Nils Pratley joined

Our own criticism of France Christian Noyer night:

Walnut is a central bank governor and member of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank. What are you to speak publicly about the credit rating of another country? This is a massive violation of the label of the central bank. Imagine if Mr. Mervyn King has the view that the S & P should not go at once and the French with the double threat reduction. It would be uproar.

know, of course, our own Chancellor, George Osborne, put his foot in it when he said last month that "markets are still questions about France," a comment that caused a scandal in the entire channel. The use of veto by David Cameron at the Summit last week, the EU has inflamed tensions considerably higher. However, central bankers should not be lashing. It does the ECB is not only France, seriously undermined.

Similarly, the Financial Times says that Christian Noyer should "behave like a central banker."

7:17 p.m. Todd Buchholz

, former adviser to the White House, which now runs the hedge fund Tiger tonight and was not derogatory French attack on the AAA rating of Great Britain.

Buchholz said

Jeff Randall Live
show on Sky News

is incomprehensible and irrational that France has had a AAA rating and the United States has been degraded.

clear that mischievous humor, Buchholz has some sympathy for Christian Noyer about his attack on the credit ratings industry (Walnut accused them of being distracted by political, not economic ):

Who works for the rating agency? People who were not bright enough to work for Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan

6:48 p.m.

seems that the Irish people will have the opportunity to vote on new EU treaty. Reuters reports that Finance Minister Michael Noonan, said his "intuition" is that the new fiscal pact will not need a referendum in the Republic.

Yesterday, Noonan said that such an effect would be a referendum vote in Ireland's membership of the euro area.

Legally, a referendum would be necessary if the treaty requires a change in the Irish Constitution. Given the austerity measures implemented in Ireland, it is unclear whether the "yes" would prevail in a referendum - so that the Dublin government is supposed to be prepared to limit the scope of the new Treaty

It is not clear whether Ireland could support tax harmonization, given its low corporate tax - something Noonan describes as an "absolute commitment"


After a bright start, stock markets left today boiling after the warning, Christine Lagarde, is

The FTSE 100 will recover some losses as yesterdy, finishing only 34 points higher in 5400. Traders were also concerned by the news that Hungary and the Czech Republic would not support a new EU treaty containing powers of tax harmonization.

David Jones of IG Index


Once again, Europe is a story that pulled the rug out from under the recovery today. It seems that Sweden, the Czech Republic and Hungary are still unhappy with the terms of the discussion last week and the risk is even more progress is delayed at best.

In New York, the Dow rose 81 points, or 0.6%. Investors on Wall Street expect the U.S. economy can withstand the crisis in Europe.

Paul Nolte, managing director of Dearborn Partners, said:

seems to be a decoupling between the U.S. and Europe.

5:56 p.m.

The European Union can open its arms again Britain .... The Financial Times reports tonight that the UK has proposed an "observer" in future negotiations on a new EU treaty to resolve the debt crisis Eurozone.

on the part of Peter Parker and George Spiegel:

Despite the invitation, will probably allow Britain to sit as an observer only in the formal negotiations that begin next week, will enable London to keep an eye on one of the most sensitive conversations: if the EU institutions can be used to monitor and enforce the new covenant in spite of being traded outside the EU treaties normal A British official said, however, that the invitation will allow the UK to participate directly in discussions.

These discussions might be alive today because of the refusal by Hungary and the Czech Republic to support projects of tax harmonization.

5:38 p.m.

Returning to France's request today that the AAA rating of Great Britain should be cut ... Economist Andrew

Lilic wrote an interesting argument that the French financial situation is much more precarious than Christian Noyer, governor of central bank said.

argued that exposing France to the euro area and U.S. devices the potential chaos that erupted on the collapse of the euro, suggesting that it can not justify a rating of AAA. Here's an idea:

What parts of the French king in danger especially its commitments with the banks. While in the UK, the coalition government has taken important steps to unravel the government in the banking sector, such as proposals for Vickers and treatment of the mortgage of the South Seas and investment banking The French Government has with banks more confused than ever.

addition, there is a significant risk of collapse of the euro, with the result that the French franc to pay its debts or something new - a currency could be devalued relative to the euro (due to the loss of Germany).

the auction? France should not wonder if your credit rating must be less than Britain. One wonders why it is superior to that of Italy.

More here.

5:01 p.m.

The most important part of

Christine Lagarde

speech seems to be the part of the alert that the debt crisis in Europe does not set "all countries, all regions, all categories of countries which actually involved."

Is an appeal to the largest economy in the world to provide funding for a "big bazooka" to tackle the mountain of debt in Europe? If so, call Lagarde could fall to the ground infertile.

United States

politicians have expressed opposition in recent days to rescue the concept of Europe. The fear is that Italy and Spain will be the IMF, in this case, much of the bill of the earth, in Washington.

Senator Jim DeMint

indicates the position of Republican last week:

members of the Obama administration should focus on strengthening the U.S. economy and the balance of our budget, instead of continuing to borrow from China to pay in Europe outside the control of debt.

4:51 p.m. We have more details Christine Lagarde

speech in Washington (where to be "dropped the D-Word" for the announcement of a return to the Great Depression).

During the speech, the head of the IMF noted that financial markets require quick solutions, that democratic governments are struggling to respond. Lagarde said the tension between market expectations and the political reality must be resolved.

this Gordian knot is really being raped, they should be treated as collectively as possible, starting with the center, but with the support of the international community perhaps through the IMF .

A cynic might suggest that Europe is already trying to solve this problem by unelected technocratic government (see Greece and Italy).

4:21 p.m. Christine Lagarde

is too pessimistic, warning that the world risks a return to 1930s? No, according to some financial experts.

Michael Platt

, founder of hedge fund Bluecrest

capital , told Bloomberg TV Today will be a year 2012 serious enough for Europe. Platt claims that the German approach to the crisis is the destruction of growth:

not going to have bonds in euros, we will not have full political and fiscal union [wealth] transfers will take place. It seems that what we have is an attempt to control the situation in Europe through austerity being, which is pro-cyclical.

as the economy slows, there are more austere, creating a sharper slowdown .... Basically, it does, I can see where we can get growth.

Platt also said that many European banks are effectively "insolvent" since the amount of sovereign debt of countries in conflict in their books:

Come in 2012, and in our opinion, it will only get worse.

If banks were hedge funds, and the brand in their market properly, I would say that probably most of them are insolvent.

3:59 p.m.

Christine Lagarde

Managing Director International Monetary Fund, urged countries around the world to work together to solve the debt crisis and European economic growth urgently stimulate economic growth or risk a return to the Great Depression.

In a stern warning, Lagarde said the global economic climate is "very sad" and that no country or region is immune to the dangers posed the situation in Europe.

There is no economy in the world, whether low-income countries, emerging markets, middle-income countries or economies of Advanced Super immune from the crisis that we see not only development, but climbing.

She said that the crisis in the euro area "is not only development, but the escalation," adding:

not a crisis to be solved by a group of countries for action. This will be decided by chance all countries, all regions, all groups of countries undertaking the action.

Most disturbing of the word - is in the Department of State U. S. Washington - where Lagarde warns of the consequences of failure. They are:

protectionism, isolation and other items reminiscent of the 1930 crisis.

The warning came to the euro, the euro hit below $ 1.30 against the U.S. dollar.

I wonder how Ms. Lagarde's comments would be seen in Greece, where the austerity measures imposed as part of the bailout from the IMF and the EU have contributed to a recession that will probably last four years .....

3:42 p.m.:.
Hungary and the Czech Republic seem to have an open parenthesis in the European project for a new treaty to tackle the debt crisis

The two leaders said today that he will not sign the new treaty unless the plans for a "tax harmonization" were dropped.

Czech Prime Minister

Peter Necas

told reporters in Budapest that the common European tax policy "does not mean anything good for us."

Viktor Orban

, his Hungarian counterpart, agreed that Hungary will join a treaty that includes the harmonized taxes.

unification of tax systems across Europe is one of the elements of the tax greater unity Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy are pressing for (although the details are unclear). Necas and Orban comments suggest that this "group of 26" can not be as unified as it first appeared.

Like Sweden, the Czech Republic and Hungary have discussed the new treaty to their national parliaments. Orban insisted that Hungary would not be rushed. In what is an obvious candidate for quote of the day, said:

We need the fire of Hungarian brandy, but the freshness of the Czech beer.

As in the United Kingdom, Hungary and the Czech Republic are members of the EU but not in the euro area, but have committed to join the single currency in the future.

Joshua Raymond of City Index estimates that the intervention is a blow to the plans of France and Germany, Twitter:

Czech mate

@ Josh_CityIndex Merkozy

3:10 p.m. The assertion of the French governor of the central bank

Christian Noyer

that Britain should lose its AAA credit rating, before France dominates the headlines today.

Officially, the British government is still quite limited. Here is the official voice response, David Cameron

We have put in place a credible plan to address the deficit and the credibility of this plan can be seen in what happened to bond yields in the country.

On the Reuters terminal, the UK ten-year bonds, the government is negotiating with a performance (in fact, the interest rate) of 2.119%. 10-year French bonds change hands for around 3.07%. This implies that the French government to accept payments significantly higher in the sale of its debt.


briefly meet U.S., recent economic data showed some of the dangers of globalization

industrial production fell 0.2% last month, according to figures released in the last hour, the expectations of confusion for a 0.2% increase. Is this a sign that the U.S. economy is slowing? Apparently not. - The surprise cut in production is attributed to flooding in Thailand


We knew that some manufacturers, including Honda and Toyota were forced to cut production last month because of parts shortages stemming from the flood in Thailand. The computer industry has been hit by scores of Thailand for more than half the hard drive in the world.

For example, Intel, which issued a surprise profit warning on Monday.

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